Published papers
(In chronological order from most recent, with links to papers. If a link is missing/not working, please email me at cvegh1@jhu.edu).
"Fooled by the cycle: Permanent versus Cyclical Improvements in Social Indicators" (with José Andrée Camarena, Luciana Galeano, Luis Morano, Jorge Puig, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Lucila Venturi, and Guillermo Vuletin), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 127 (October 2022). NBER working paper version.
"Inflation Stabilization Programs in Latin America" (in Spanish), in Marco Ortiz and Diego Winkelried, eds., Hitos de la Reforma Macroeconómica en Perú , 1990-2020 (Universidad del Pacífico, Perú, 2022), pp. 31-43.
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from a Narrative Approach" (with Diego Rojas and Guillermo Vuletin), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 139 (November 2022). NBER working paper version.
"Non-linear Effects of Tax Changes on Output: The Role of the Initial Level of Taxation" (with Samara Gunter, Daniel Riera-Crichton, and Guillermo Vuletin), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 131 (2021). NBER working paper version.
"The Effect of Capital Flows Composition on Output Volatility (with Pablo Federico and Guillermo Vuletin), Economica, Vol. 64 (2018), pp. 95-132. World Bank working paper version.
"Unsticking the Flypaper Effect Using Distortionary Taxation" (with Guillermo Vuletin), Economica, Vol. 62 (2016), pp. 185-237. NBER working paper version.
"The Exchange-Rate Response to Monetary Policy Innovations" (with Viktoria Hnatkovska and Amartya Lahiri), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 8 (2016), pp 137-81.
"Tax Multipliers: Pitfalls in Measurement and Identification" (with Daniel Riera-Crichton and Guillermo Vuletin), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 79 (2016), pp. 30-48. NBER working paper version.
"Unsticking the Flypaper Effect in an Uncertain World" (with Guillermo Vuletin), Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 131 (2015), pp.142-155. NBER Working paper version.
"Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries" (with Daniel Riera-Crichton and Guillermo Vuletin), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 52 (April 2015), pp. 15-31. NBER Working paper version.
"How Is Tax Policy Conducted over the Business Cycle?" (with Guillermo Vuletin), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Vol. 7 (2015), pp. 327-70.
"The Road to Redemption: Policy Response to Crises in Latin America" (with Guillermo Vuletin), IMF Economic Review, Vol. 62 (2014), pp. 546-68.
"Interest Rate and the Exchange Rate: A Non-Monotonic Tale" (with Viktoria Hnatkovska and Amartya Lahiri), European Economic Review, Vol. 63 (2013), 68-93. NBER working paper version.
"On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality" (with Jeffrey Frankel and Guillermo Vuletin), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 100 (2013), pp.32-47. NBER working paper version.
"How Big (Small) are Fiscal Multipliers?" (with Ethan Ilzetzki and Enrique Mendoza), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 60 (2013), 239-54. NBER working paper version.
"Overcoming the Fear of Free Falling: Monetary Policy Graduation in Emerging Markets" (with Guillermo Vuletin), in Douglas D. Evanoff, Cornelia Holthausen, George C. Kaufman, and Manfred Kremer, eds., The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability: How Has It Changed? World Scientific Studies in International Economics, Volume 30 (Singapore: World Scientific, 2013). NBER working paper version.
“Decoupling and Recoupling" (with Anton Korinek and Agustin Roitman), American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 100 (2010), pp. 393-97.
"When is it Optimal to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate? (with Sergio Rebelo), Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 75 (2008), pp. 929-55.
"Optimal Exchange Rate Regimes: Turning Mundell-Fleming's Dictum on its Head", in Carmen Reinhart, Andrés Velasco, and Carlos A. Vegh, eds., Money, Crises, and Transition: Essays in Honor of Guillermo Calvo (MIT Press, 2008). NBER working paper version.
"Segmented asset markets and optimal exchange rate regimes" (with Amartya Lahiri and Rajesh Singh), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 72 (2007)., pp. 1-21. NBER working paper version.
"Output Costs, Balance of Payment Crises, and Interest Rate Defense of a Peg" (with Amartya Lahiri), Economic Journal, Vol. 117 (2007), 219-39.
"Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy" (with Ernesto Talvi), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 78 (2005), pp. 159-90. NBER working paper version.
"When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," (with Graciela Kaminsky and Carmen Reinhart), in Mark Gertler and Kenneth S. Rogoff, NBER Macro Annual 2004 (2005), pp.11-82.
"The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion" (with G. Kaminsky and C. Reinhart), Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17 (2003), 51-74
"Delaying the Inevitable: Optimal Interest Rate Defense and BOP Crises" (with A. Lahiri), Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 111 (2003), 404-24.
"Modern Hyper- and High Inflation" (with Stanley Fischer and Ratna Sahay), Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 40 (2002), pp. 195-241.
"Living with the Fear of Floating: An Optimal Policy Perspective" (with Amartya Lahiri), in Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey Frankel, eds., Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets (University of Chicago Press, 2002). NBER working paper version.
"Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Rules, and Inflation Targeting: Some Basic Equivalences," in Fernando Lefort and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, eds., Indexation, Inflation, and Monetary Policy (Santiago, Chile: Central Bank of Chile, 2002), pp.151-183. NBER working paper version
"Fiscal Policy Sustainability: A Basic Framework" (with Ernesto Talvi), Introductory chapter in Ernesto Talvi and Carlos A. Vegh, eds. ¿Cómo Armar el Rompecabezas Fiscal? Nuevos Indicadores de Sostenibilidad (How to Put Together the Fiscal Puzzle? New Sustainability Indicators), Washington, DC: Inter-American Bank (2000).
"Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries" (with Guillermo A. Calvo), in John Taylor and Michael Woodford, eds., Handbook of Macroeconomics (Volume C; North Holland, 1999), 1531-1614. NBER working paper version.
"Losing Credibility: The Stabilization Blues," (with Pablo E. Guidotti), International Economic Review, Vol. 40 (1999), pp. 23-51.
"Inflation Stabilization and the Consumption of Durable Goods" (with Jose De Gregorio and Pablo E. Guidotti), Economic Journal, Vol. 108 (1998), pp. 23-51
"Banks and Macroeconomic Disturbances under Predetermined Exchange Rates" (with Sebastian Edwards), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 40 (1997), pp. 239-78. NBER working paper version.
"How Far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?" (with Stanley Fischer and Ratna Sahay), in Horst Siebert, ed., Quo Vadis Europe? (Kiel, Germany: Institute for World Economics, 1997). NBER working paper version.
"From Transition to Market: Evidence and Growth Prospects," (with Stanley Fischer and Ratna Sahay), in Salvatore Zechhini, ed., Lessons from the Economic Transition: Central and Eastern Europe in the 1990s (Kluwer Academic Publishers and OECD, 1997), pp. 79-101. NBER working paper version.
"Disinflation and Interest-Bearing Money" (with Guillermo A. Calvo), Economic Journal, Vol. 106 (1996), pp. 1546-63.
"Capital Flows in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence and Policy Options" (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Ratna Sahay), in Guillermo A. Calvo, Morris Goldstein, and Eduard Hochreiter, eds., Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets after the Mexican Crisis (Washington: Institute for International Economics, 1996), pp. 57-90. NBER working paper version.
"Inflation and Stabilization in Transition Economies: An Analytical Interpretation of the Evidence," (with Ratna Sahay) Journal of Policy Reform, Vol.1 (1996), pp.75-108. NBER working paper version.
"From Currency Substitution to Dollarization and Beyond: Analytical and Policy Issues" (with Guillermo A. Calvo), in Guillermo A. Calvo, Money, Exchange Rates, and Output (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1996), pp. 153-175.
"Economies in Transition: The Beginnings of Growth," (with Stanley Fischer and Ratna Sahay), American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings (1996), pp. 229-33.
"Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience" (with Stanley Fischer and Ratna Sahay), Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 10 (1996), 45-66.
"Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay" (with Alexander W. Hoffmaister), IMF Staff Papers (now IMF Economic Review), Vol. 43 (1996), pp. 355-394.
"Dollarization in Transition Economies: Evidence and Policy Implications" (with Ratna Sahay), in Paul Mizen and Eric J. Pentecost, eds., The Macroeconomics of International Currencies: Theory, Policy and Evidence (London: Edward Elgar, 1996), pp. 192-224. NBER Working paper version.
"Nominal Interest Rates, Consumption Booms, and Lack of Credibility: A Quantitative Examination" (with Carmen M. Reinhart), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 46 (1995), pp. 357-378. Working paper version.
"Targeting the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence" (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Carmen M. Reinhart), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 47 (1995), pp. 97-133. IMF working paper.
"Real Effects of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations: An Analysis of Competing Theories" (with Sergio Rebelo), in Ben S. Bernanke and Julio J. Rotemberg, eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual (1995), pp.125-174.
"Fighting Inflation with High Interest Rates: The Small-Open-Economy Case under Flexible Prices" (with Guillermo A. Calvo), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 27 (February 1995), pp. 49-66.
"Stabilization Dynamics and Backward-Looking Contracts" (with Guillermo A. Calvo), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 43 (1994), pp. 59-84. IMF working paper version.
"Credibility and the Dynamics of Stabilization Policy: A Basic Framework" (with Guillermo A. Calvo), in Christopher Sims, ed., Advances in Econometrics: Sixth World Congress, Vol. II (Cambridge University Press, 1994), pp. 377-420. IMF Working Paper.
"Exchange Rate-Based Stabilisation under Imperfect Credibility" (with Guillermo A. Calvo), in Open-Economy Macroeconomics, edited by Helmut Frisch and Andreas Worgotter (London: MacMillan Press, 1993), pp. 3-28. Reprinted in Guillermo Calvo, Essays on Money, Inflation, and Output (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996), pp. 365-390.
"Inflation Stabilization and Nominal Anchors" (with Guillermo A. Calvo), Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. XII (1994), pp. 35-45.
"Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers (now IMF Economic Review), Vol. 39 (1992), pp. 626-95.
"Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction" (with Guillermo A. Calvo), Revista de Análisis Económico, Vol. 7 (1992), pp. 3-27. IMF working paper version.
"Macroeconomic Interdependence under Capital Controls: A Two-Country Model of Dual Exchange Rates" (with Pablo E. Guidotti), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 32 (1992), pp. 353-367. IMF working paper version.
"Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy: The Predetermined Exchange Rates Case" (with Guillermo A. Calvo), IMF Staff Papers (now IMF Economic Review), Vol. 37 (1990), pp. 753-776.
"Dual Exchange Rate Markets Under Incomplete Separation: An Optimizing Model" (with Jagdeep S. Bhandari), IMF Staff Papers (now IMF Economic Review), Vol 37 (1990), pp. 146-166.
"Effects of Currency Substitution on the Response of the Current Account to Supply Shocks," IMF Staff Papers (now IMF Economic Review), Vol. 35 (December 1988), pp. 574-91.